Is Port Congestion Back? What’s Different This Time?

Australian ports are once again showing signs of pressure, but unlike 2021, the causes may not be temporary.

The queues aren’t stretching out to sea as they did during the pandemic, but early indicators suggest capacity is tightening. Vessel arrival patterns, berth utilisation, and labour availability are all trending in ways that make the system less elastic. For importers and exporters who depend on reliable schedules, that’s reason to pay attention.

This time, the issue isn’t a surge in consumer demand or pandemic-era disruption. It’s structural. And that makes it harder to fix.

Why? Because the root cause is structural. And that makes it harder to fix.

 

The Shifting Dynamics Behind Port Pressure

Over the past year, vessel size and volume growth have outpaced infrastructure upgrades. Global container ships continue to increase in capacity – some now exceeding 24,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) – while Australian terminals were largely built for ships carrying 8,000–14,000 TEU. That gap matters. Each new generation of vessel brings more containers per call, longer handling times, and higher yard turnover pressure.

At the same time, labour shortages have persisted on the wharves and at the gates, slowing turnaround. Weather events and isolated industrial action have compounded the challenge, especially during high-volume windows. Infrastructure that was fit-for-purpose a decade ago is now routinely operating near its design limits.

Australian port productivity is among the worst in the world, with World Bank Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) data consistently ranking most Australian container ports in the lowest-performing segments. While there are many contributing factors, the issue of maritime worker EBA’s limiting the container lifts per hour is a contributing factor. As automation expands across various Australian ports, this trend may reverse in time.

 

The Industrial Action Factor

In January 2025, Qube Ports faced sustained industrial action across multiple terminals, with the Maritime Union of Australia implementing 24-hour stoppages at Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Darwin, Port Kembla and Fremantle. Between 97% and 100% of workers at all sites voted in favour of strike action.

Shipping Australia called on the Federal Government to intervene, warning of severe economic implications. Melbourne experienced delays ranging from 5-14 days during peak industrial action periods, driven by fluctuating yard capacity averaging around 90%. Brisbane saw delays of 3-7 days become increasingly common.

 

The Operational Picture in 2024–2025

• Melbourne terminals are under growing pressure, with vessel-handling delays of 5 to 10 days reported, during peak utilisation periods, driven by yard congestion and limited buffer capacity (Explorate, May 28 2025).
• Brisbane has faced intermittent congestion, with 3-7 day delays recorded during heavy discharge windows, linked to slot scheduling and yard density constraints (Explorate, May 28 2025).
• Sydney terminals are intermittently flagged for congestion, with logistics operators reporting heavy pressure when equipment availability or berth allocations tighten (PSA BDP Australia, 2025).
• Melbourne’s monthly throughput remains around95,000 TEU, with an average of 1,850 containers per vessel, indicating terminals are operating near capacity (CEIC Data, 2025).
• Vessel sizes and throughput are increasing faster than infrastructure upgrades, as most Australian ports still handle 8,000-14,000 TEU while berth-deepening and rail projects progress more slowly (GoComet Port Congestion Tracker, 2025).
• Freight operators continue to warn of ongoing port delays across Australia, citing labour shortages, weather, and inconsistent terminal performance (TCF International, 2025).

 

Why It’s Harder to Fix This Time

The fundamentals driving congestion – vessel size, terminal capacity, labour availability, and infrastructure investment gaps – won’t resolve quickly. Unlike pandemic-era disruptions that eventually cleared, these are systemic constraints requiring significant capital investment and time.

Infrastructure Australia has flagged that investment will be required to ensure larger container ships can berth and transfer containers efficiently. Channel deepening, wharf upgrades, and improved landside access infrastructure are all necessary, but progress remains incremental.

 

A Systemic Ripple, Not a Local Problem

Port efficiency doesn’t exist in isolation. When a ship arrival is delayed or a yard hits capacity, it cascades through the supply chain: trucking schedules slip, warehouse receiving slots fill, and exporters risk missing outbound windows.

Even short disruptions (a day or two) can ripple into inventory imbalances, higher detention costs, and tighter lead times for downstream manufacturers and retailers. It’s not yet a full-scale congestion crisis, but the structural constraints mean the system has less margin to absorb shocks.

 

What Businesses Should Watch

Port performance indicators: monitor vessel dwell times, congestion surcharges, and terminal notices – small changes can signal tightening conditions.

Labour and industrial negotiations: any escalation can quickly translate to operational slowdowns.

Infrastructure timelines: progress on rail integration and yard expansions at Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane will shape capacity over the next two years.

Weather: this has become an increasing factor of Port shutdowns in recent years.

 

The Takeaway

Australia’s ports aren’t in crisis, but they are under pressure. The difference this time is that the constraints are structural, not cyclical.

For supply chain operators, freight forwarders, and import-export businesses, the question isn’t whether disruption will occur –  it’s how prepared you are when it does and what is the contingency.

Many solutions have been proposed, from instigating the “blue highway” and creating a domestic fleet to transfer containerised goods, to inland rail as a contingency for the transfer of goods across Eastern seaboard states. Both of these are yet to eventuate.

The saviour on the white horse for all ports are Intermodals or inland ports. The ability to move freight en masse from discharged vessels to an inland intermodal alleviates capacity constraints at the port, as well as road congestion in and around port precincts. Similarly, exports, which are predominantly from regional areas, can be stored in close proximity to the port for faster delivery to meet vessel receival times.

Building contingency plans, aligning with suppliers that can provide that contingency, and adjusting lead-time expectations are critical steps. Diversifying routes or transport modes can be the difference between a short delay and a supply-chain bottleneck or hefty detention charges, supply shortages, lost revenue, and customers with missed vessel windows.

Port congestion may not be back in full, but Australia’s trade volumes have been in a slump over the past two years.

Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed to AUD 1.83 billion in August 2025, down sharply from a downwardly revised AUD 6.61 billion in July and well below market expectations of AUD 6.2 billion.

 

The warning signs are clear and the system’s resilience is being tested. We cannot let it break when our economy and trade is booming once again.

 

Sue Tomic

SCLAA Chair  |  Board Advisor – Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School