Stormy Seas Ahead for Maritime Shipping

US–China trade crossfire set to push up Australian freight costs

Global shipping is entering choppy waters again.

Two major moves, China’s new fees on US vessels and America’s threat of sanctions tied to climate policy, are colliding in a way that will raise costs across global trade lanes. For Australia, an island nation with a predominantly maritime economy, the fallout will be hard to miss.

 

China Fires Back with Tonnage Fees

From 14 October 2025, China will hit US-linked vessels with new tonnage fees – a direct counter to tariffs the United States is imposing the same day.

The charges apply to US-flagged, US-built, or US-owned ships (where American interests hold more than 25 per cent of ownership, voting rights or board control).

Rates start at USD 56 (about AUD 86) per net ton and rise annually to USD 90 in 2026, USD 123 in 2027, and USD 157 (about AUD 240) in 2028. Each vessel pays once per voyage, capped at five times a year.

Shipping lines likely to feel it include Matson, Maersk Line Limited, APL, Zim and Seaspan. Analysts at HSBC estimate Chinese carriers such as COSCO and OOCL could absorb more than USD 2 billion in extra costs in 2026 as a result of the US tariffs these fees respond to.

It’s another reminder that the US–China trade war never really ended, it just shifted offshore.

 

The Climate Policy Standoff

The second front is playing out inside the International Maritime Organization (IMO), where members are set to vote on a Net-Zero Framework to cut emissions from shipping – a sector that handles around 80 per cent of world trade and produces nearly 3 per cent of global emissions.

The United States has gone on the offensive, branding the proposal an “unsanctioned global tax regime.”

In a joint statement, the Secretaries of State, Energy and Transport warned they “will not tolerate any action that increases costs for our citizens, energy providers, shipping companies, or their customers.”

If enacted, Washington says possible counter-measures could include:

• Additional port fees on vessels from countries voting “yes”
• Port-entry bans for those ships
• Visa restrictions and added costs for crew changes
• Sanctions on officials “sponsoring activist-driven climate policies”

Critics argue the US stance risks isolating American trade and undermining international efforts to decarbonise the sector.

Full statement: US Department of State – Taking Action to Defend America from the UN’s First Global Carbon Tax

 

Why It Matters for Australia

Australia moves 99 per cent of its trade by volume over water.

When the world’s two largest economies weaponise shipping policy, the cost shock hits our ports next.

• Freight rates climb. New fees are baked into carrier charges and passed straight to importers, exporters and consumers.
• Routes shift. If access becomes uncertain, lines consolidate services or skip ports, cutting reliability.
• Paperwork multiplies. Conflicting rules and tariffs add compliance drag, especially for smaller operators.
• Diplomacy tightens. Maintaining trade with both Washington and Beijing becomes a balancing act.

These tensions don’t exist in isolation. They fit a broader pattern of protectionism, reshoring and regulatory brinkmanship that’s reshaping global logistics.

 

What Businesses Should Watch

• Movements in freight rates on trans-Pacific and China-linked routes
• Carrier schedule or service changes driven by cost or policy
• The outcome of the IMO vote and any US follow-through
• Contract renewals that reference surcharges or tariff clauses

Some firms are already adjusting, diversifying carriers, locking in multi-year pricing, or building inventory buffers to absorb volatility.

 

The Takeaway

Neither of these disputes will stay offshore.

Maritime costs shape Australia’s inflation, competitiveness, and supply-chain stability.

The combination of retaliatory fees and climate-policy sanctions marks another step away from the predictable, rules-based trading system of the past. Businesses that keep one eye on the horizon and the other on their freight contracts will ride out the turbulence better than those that wait for the storm to hit.

 

Sue Tomic

SCLAA Chair  |  Board Advisor – Institute of Transport & Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School